Presidential Election - too close to call

Presidential Election - too close to call

14 November 2019 11:50 am

Latest polls show a tight race between Minister Sajith Premadasa and former military chief and US Citizen Gotabaya Rajapakse. They are both locked in a tight race in the election. Most polls show them neck-in-neck. Three reliable surveys that we analyzed puts Sajith Premadasa slightly ahead of Gotabaya Rajapakse by 1% . However both Candidates are around 46%. Sajith Premadasa 46+% and Gotabaya 44+%. There is still a large % of women who are still floating looking to vote for a candidate who can relate to them and their daughters.

The Sri Lankan demographic revels that 58% of the voters now are women, and men are only 42%. A blunder by the SLPP strategy team shifted the women’s vote to young Premadasa in big way, by attacking him stupidly on menstrual pads, earning him the nickname Pad Man. Now, it is too late for them to correct that stupid blunder. Premadasa’s only flaw in the armory now is the failed Economic team of the UNP. He has got the security issue covered well with Fonseka, a decorated war veteran, who led the Army on the battlefield to victory.

If sajith Premadasa loses the election, it is because of the dismal performance of the UNPs economic team. They failed by the public miserably and most of the FDIs like the previous regime was marred by controversy and deals, very unfortunately. He needs to tell publicly that he will dump the controversial ministers from his team.


But on the democratic side , no government has given so much of democratic freedom like the current state for the public to criticize. The public now enjoys that freedom, unlike ever before. Even to  the extend of presenting forge documents in public and not being charged. The much respected Dilmha Founder’s name was also recently used by the SLPP campaign fraudulently to promote the candidate. Sending shockwaves in the private sector, of the things to come. An election of a Rajapakse will change all this overnight.

For Rajapakse to win he needs to dispel the issue about his citizenship. He is bound to lose a lot of supporters in the next two days over this issue. This is the first time in history a budding First Lady and the first Son are US citizens. Damn disgraceful to the so called Sinhala hardliners, who are playing the racist card to woo the hardliners to the SLPP. Premadasa’s biggest advantage is that he relates to the poor and genuinely cares for them, like President Premadasa. If he wins, it is the poor who put him into office. He will however need to make use of the last two days to distance himself from the failed UNP ministers, to attract the 20% floaters and on the other hand for Gotabaya rather than attracting new voters, his challenge now is to stop the bleeding of his base. The final result will certainly surprise all the pundits who are predicting landslides to both candidates.