Several polls done by several institutions clearly indicate that there is large group of undecided voters and that Sajith Premadasa looks very likely to get 50% of the undecided voters.
Sajith Premadasa is clearly more popular than the UNP, the UNP is clearly hovering around 30%, while Sajith Premadasa is around 42%. This was very evident in the recent mini election in the South. The SLPP that recently won a huge confidence vote of nearly 70%, is far more popular than their candidate Gotabaya Rajapakse.
The SLPP candidate polled around 36% and SLPP polled around 42% on our data. The JVP will very like to get around 700,000 votes. around 5% of the total votes cast. The other candidates around 2%. No candidate is likely to cross the 50%. Unless the SLPP candidate’s citizenship is challenged once again in the Supreme Court. That will dampen the momentum once again for the SLPP candidate.
While the SLPP kicked off their campaign in August , the Premadasa campaign has not kicked off fully on social media or the media yet. Future crossovers to SLPP will not make much impact on the campaign. While any movement to the UNP campaign will have a far greater impact on the final outcome. The 2nd preference will certainly come into play this election unlike ever before according to the polls. Data clearly suggests that Premadasa can emerge as the winner provided he sustains the campaign at the current levels.
Data also suggest that Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka will also have to play a crucial role in the campaign to give confidence to the hardliners and to the Sinhala Heartland. It is very unlikely the SLPP candidate will see any huge spikes in the coming weeks. The SLPP campaign is clearly fueled by Mahinda Rajapaksa popularity. But not exciting.The Premadasa camp can get a huge boost if former President Chandrika Bandaranayake joins the campaign or Speaker Karu Jayasuriya joins the campaign trail to Appel to the Sinhala Buddhist.